Use of survival analysis as a tool for the genetic improvement of age at first conception in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons in beef cattle lead to censoring of reproductive data. In this paper, age at first conception (AFC) of Nellore females exposed to the sires for the first time between 11 and 16 months of age, was studied aiming to verify the possibility of genetically advance sexual precocity using a survival model. The final data set contained 6699 records of AFC in days. Records of females that did not calve in the next year following exposure to the sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The model used was a Weibull mixed survival model including effects of contemporary groups, period (fixed) and animal (random). The effect of the contemporary groups on AFC was important (p < 0.01). Heritabilities were 0.51 and 0.76 in logarithmic and original scales respectively. Results indicate that it is possible to genetically advance sexual precocity, using the outcome of survival analysis of AFC as selection criterion. They also suggest that improvements of the environment could advance sexual precocity too, thus an adequate pregnancy rate for farmers could quickly be achieved.

Quantitative genetic study of age at subsequent rebreeding in Nellore cattle by using survival analysis

The continuous trait age at subsequent rebreeding (ASR) was evaluated using survival analysis in Nellore breed cows that conceived for the first time at approximately 14 months of age. This methodology was chosen because the restricted breeding season produces censored data. The dataset contained 2885 records of ASR (in days). Records of females that did not produce calves in the following year after being exposed to a sire were considered censored (48.3% of the total). The statistical model used was a Weibull mixed survival model, which included fixed effects of contemporary groups (CG) and period and a random effect of individual animal. The effect of contemporary groups on ASR was significant (P < 0.01). Heritabilities obtained for ASR were 0.03 and 0.04 in logarithmic and original scales, respectively. These results indicate that the genetic selection response for subsequent reproduction of 2-year-old Nellore breed females is not expected to be effective based on survival analysis. Furthermore, these results suggest that environmental improvement is fundamental to this important trait. It should be highlighted that an increase in the average date of birth can produce an adverse effect in the future, since this cannot be compensated by genetic improvement.

A Cohort Study of Caries Incidence and Baseline Socioeconomic, Clinical and Demographic Variables: A Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Remission status follow-up in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective: To characterize articular and systemic inflammatory activity in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), identifying remission status with and without medication.Methods: A total of 165 JIA cases, followed for a mean period of 3.6 years, were reviewed in order to characterize episodes of inactivity and clinical remission on and off medication. The resulting data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics, survival analysis, by comparison of Kaplan-Meier curves, log rank testing and binary logistic regression;analysis in order to identify predictive factors for remission or persistent activity.Results: One hundred and eight of the cases reviewed fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 57 patients (52.7%) exhibited a total of 71 episodes of inactivity, with a mean of 2.9 years per episode; 36 inactivity episodes (50.7%) resulted in clinical remission off medication, 35% of which were of the persistent oligoarticular subtype. The probability of clinical remission on medication over 2 years was 81, 82, 97 and 83% for cases of persistent oligoarticular, extended oligoarticular, polyarticular and systemicJIA, respectively. The probability of clinical remission off medication 5 years after onset of remission was 40 and 67% for patients with persistent oligoarticular and systemic JIA, respectively. Persistent disease activity was significantly associated with the use of an anti-rheumatic drug combination. Age at JIA onset was the only factor that predicted clinical remission (p = 0.002).Conclusions: In this cohort, the probability of JIA progressing to clinical remission was greater for the persistent oligoarticular and systemic subtypes, when compared with polyarticular cases.

Progression of articular and extraarticular damage in oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Comparison among three approaches for evaluation of sexual precocity in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons used in beef cattle produce censored data for reproduction traits measured in regard to these seasons. To analyze these data, adequate methods must be used. The objective of this paper was to compare three approaches aiming to evaluate sexual precocity in Nellore cattle. The final data set contained 6699 records of age at first conception (AFC14) (in days) and of heifer pregnancy (HP14) (binary) obtained from females exposed to the bulls for the first time at about 14 months of age. Records of females that did not calve in the following year after being exposed to a sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The models used to obtain genetic parameters and expected progeny differences (EPDs) were a Weibull mixed and a censored linear model for AFC14 and threshold model for HP14. The mean heritabilities obtained were 0.76 and 0.44, respectively, for survival and censored linear models (for AFC14), and 0.58 for HP14. Ranking and Pearson correlations varied (in absolute values) from 0.54 to 0.99 (considering different percentages of sires selected), indicating moderate changes in the classification. Considering survival analysis as the best selection criterion (that would result in the best response to selection), it was observed that selection for HP14 would lead to a more significant decrease in selection response if compared with selection for AFC14 analysed by censored linear model, from which results were very similar to the survival analysis.

Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dynamics of extinction in coupled populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aderência a um programa de atividade física e fatores associados

The aim of this study was to verify the adherence of participants in a program of physical activity; and to verify if there is any association between the age, Body Mass Index and General Functional Fitness Index with this adherence. It was used the control of frequency for 62 months and data of the anthropometric and functional evaluations of 122 participants (58 + 9 years). 49.2% of the participants gave the program up and 50.8% remained to it. The average of permanence time was 24 + 17 months. The percentage of the adherence of people with satisfactory fitness is greater than with not satisfactory fitness. The percentage of adherence of older people is larger than younger age. The percentage of adherence of not-obese is greater than of obese. However, none of these variables presented statistical difference. It can be concluded that even though there was adherence with similar results even to permanence as to desistance, the time of permanence in the program was very high when compared to other studies.

Experimental systemic virulence of oral Candida dubliniensis isolates in comparison with Candida albicans, Candida tropicalis and Candida krusei

There are no previous studies on the comparative virulence of Candida dubliniensis with other non-albicans species. The aim of this study was to compare the virulence and infection kinetics of C. dubliniensis and other species. Candida albicans, C. dubliniensis, Candida tropicalis and Candida krusei (reference strains) were inoculated intravenously in mice. For infection kinetics evaluation, a group of five animals were sacrificed after 6 h, 3, 7, 14 and 21 days. Microbiological evaluations (liver, spleen, kidneys, lungs and brain) and histopathological examination of the kidney were performed. The results of virulence evaluation were analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (5%). Candida dubliniensis-inoculated mice survived for longer periods compared with those with C. albicans (P = 0.005). No differences were detected in relation to C. tropicalis (P = 0.326) and C. krusei (P = 0.317). Most of the organs were persistently colonised by C. albicans and C. dubliniensis even by day 21. Tendency of C. krusei clearance was observed in all organs. Fungal masses and renal lesions were observed after inoculation of C. albicans, C. dubliniensis and C. tropicalis. Within the limits of the study, data on survival rate and dissemination capacity suggest that C. dubliniensis is less virulent than C. albicans.

Freqüência e variáveis associadas ao aleitamento materno em crianças com até 12 meses de idade no município de Araçatuba, São Paulo, Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)